Background

The Flexible Forecast Presentation, already implemented at ICPAC and at most of the NMHS in the region, is an online presentation that overcomes challenges associated with the tercile presentation of seasonal forecast by presenting downscaled forecasts as full probability distributions in probability-of-exceedance format along with the historical climate distribution.

Instead of the usual terciles (below normal, normal, and above normal) presentation, the Flexible Forecast Presentation allows users to choose a threshold they are interested in, either as percentiles or rainfall amounts. For instance, one can explore the probability that the total rainfall for the coming would be above or below 350 mm.

This will provide decision-makers with more specific information to act up on. This online presentation offers different display options.  

A map view provides seasonal forecast quantities, anomalies, or probabilities of experiencing above or below a user-selected quantity or percentile, at the spatial resolution of the underlying gridded data.

This presentation also offers location-specific climate forecast information, displayed as exceedance graphs or probability density function, that can help users to assess what the next season might bring and plan accordingly.

For decision makers who work at an aggregate scale, a map view provides forecast quantities, anomalies, or probabilities of experiencing above or below a specified quantity or percentile, at the spatial resolution of the underlying gridded data.

On the other hand, the probability of exceedance graphs help decision-makers to drill down on specific locations.