Over recent years, climate events in Eastern and Southern Africa have escalated in both frequency and severity. From the extended drought in East Africa between October 2020 and February 2023, which claimed over 13 million livestock, to the extreme flooding in 2023 and early 2024, communities have been left struggling to recover. The intense rainfall in early 2024 led to devastating floods in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, triggering rapid landslides that caused significant loss of life and infrastructure damage, including the catastrophic landslides in July in Ethiopia. Similarly, Southern Africa has faced repeated extreme weather events, including Mozambique’s floods following Cyclone Freddy in 2023 and severe storms in South Africa. The devastation caused by the cyclone in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique has increased the spread of cholera and malaria, as well as malnutrition.

To help mitigate these region-specific challenges through resilience-building, the AICCRA East and Southern Africa cluster, in association with the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the Centre for Coordination of Agricultural Research and Development for Southern Africa (CCARDESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Climate Services Centre, hosted a timely regional training on sub-seasonal forecasting in Gaborone, Botswana.

The urgency of climate preparedness

The relentless cycles of disaster highlight the pressing need for improved climate resilience and early warning systems across the region. While short-term (up to 7 days) and long-term (seasonal) weather and climate forecasts are available, there remains a crucial gap in predictions for periods spanning two to eight weeks, known as sub-seasonal forecasts. 

These forecasts can help bridge the gap between short- and long-term predictions, enabling better agricultural decision-making, water management, disaster preparedness, and energy planning.

The power of sub-seasonal forecasts

Sub-seasonal forecasting is a relatively new field of meteorology that focuses on predicting weather patterns over periods of two to 12 weeks. Sub-seasonal predictions play a pivotal role, particularly for regions like Eastern and Southern Africa, where extreme weather events significantly impact agriculture and water resources, in providing early warnings that can help communities prepare for imminent climate risks. However, generating these forecasts presents challenges due to the complex atmospheric and oceanic processes that influence weather patterns over this timescale. 

To address this gap, the AICCRA project in collaboration with ICPAC, organized a training initiative to enhance forecasting capabilities for agro-meteorology, meteorology and climate experts across the region.

Empowering meteorologists and scientists

This training focused on equipping meteorologists, climate scientists, and relevant stakeholders with the tools and knowledge needed to improve the accuracy and application of sub-seasonal forecasts. At the heart of this program is the Python-based Climate Predictability Tool (PyCPT v2.8), developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). This advanced climate predictability tool will enable participants to generate more precise sub-seasonal forecasts, potentially safeguarding millions of lives and livelihoods by providing earlier and more reliable predictions.

Key Objectives and Outcomes

The training’s primary goal was to build capacity among National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) from Eastern and Southern to effectively use PyCPT v2.8 for sub-seasonal forecasting. Mastering this tool equipped participants with the ability to predict sub-seasonal forecasts, assess their accuracy, and extract valuable and timely information for interpretation in real-world agriculture, water management, and disaster planning scenarios. Additionally, the training fostered collaboration among regional stakeholders, enhancing climate risk management and promoting sustainable development practices.

By the end of the training, participants had the essential skills to generate more accurate forecasts and develop action plans for integrating these predictions into their respective countries. This training not only aimed to improve forecasting but also sought to enhance overall climate resilience across the region. By focusing on these sub-seasonal predictions, Eastern and Southern African countries will be better equipped to respond to the increasing threat of climate extremes, protecting vulnerable communities and strengthening regional resilience infrastructure.

Sub-seasonal forecasts provide information about climate conditions from weeks to months. This information is valuable for smallholder farmers, livestock keepers, and other frontline decision-makers who must plan for upcoming climatic conditions ahead. 

AICCRA, ICPAC, SADC-CSC and other relevant regional actors are keen on ensuring Eastern and Southern Africa develops a robust regional sub-seasonal forecasting capacity that informs farmers, livestock keepers and decision-makers on timely and accurate information for better safeguarding and livelihood management.
 

Authors

Brook Makonnen, Communications and Knowledge Management Lead at AICCRA East and Southern Africa

With thanks to Dr. Teferi Demissie (AICCRA), Dr. Hussen Seid (ICPAC) and Dr. Tamirat Bekele (AICCRA) for their reviews and contributions