Abstract

Coffee is crucial to the Ethiopian economy as it represents 26% of the country’s commodity exports. It is an important source of income for over 15 million smallholder farmers and bears potential for coffee tourism development. Coffee agroecosystems in Ethiopia are known to support diverse flora and fauna, including shade trees and other plant species. However, potential yields and income from coffee are found to be compromised and ecosystem integrity would be disrupted due to impacts of climate change and variability. • Annual rainfall is projected to increase by 45 to 185 mm during the 2035 period. Kiremt (Meher) season rainfall is projected to increase by 8 to 72 mm while Belg season rainfall will decline by 15 mm to 36 mm. • Annual minimum and maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 1.28 to 1.48°C and 1.12 to 1.28°C, respectively, by 2035. • Average number of wet days will markedly increase during the 2035 period and the number of heavy and very heavy rain days will rise. The number of consecutive dry days, the standard daily intensity index, and diurnal temperature ranges will decline. • Tropical nights will considerably increase by a minimum of 20 days and a maximum of 100 days. Changes in major climatic variables in coffee-producing areas will affect each component of the coffee value chain followed by several socio-economic and ecological consequences.