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Enhancing climate forecasting in West Africa and the Sahel

Background

AICCRA aims to enhance access to climate information services and validated climate-smart agricultural technologies in Africa. The project aims to assist countries in strengthening the resilience of their agricultural sectors in the face of the threat posed by climate change.

In the same vein, as a regional partner, the Regional Center AGRHYMET CCR-AOS, as part of its mandate and with the support of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), is working to improve seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting capabilities using the NextGen approach.

The "NextGen" forecasting system aids forecasters in evaluating the performance of various global climate models, enabling them to determine the best way to correct and combine these models. It also helps forecasters select the best climate models for specific regions of interest through process-based assessments. Furthermore, it automates the generation and verification of forecasts at various time scales, be it regional, national, or local.

The investments made by the AICCRA project in regional NextGen training in West Africa in 2022 have significantly increased regional and national forecasting capacity. This approach has been introduced into the operational systems of several countries in the sub-region.
Additionally, IRI has worked on improving this forecasting approach by developing a new version of the PyCPT tool (PyCPT2.5) and extending the NextGen approach to sub-seasonal forecasting (2 to 4 weeks in advance). Producing accurate and timely forecasts at this scale is crucial for predictability and early warnings regarding high-impact extreme events such as recurrent droughts and floods.

Therefore, there is a need to strengthen the capacity of national meteorological and hydrological services in these approaches to enable their operational implementation.

Objectives

The overarching objective of these workshops by AGRHYMET and AICCRA is to enhance the capacity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in utilizing the NextGen approach for seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting. More specifically, the goals are as follows:

1. 1. To build upon the knowledge gained from the previous training sessions held in Ouagadougou and Lomé.
2. 2. To strengthen the capabilities of NMHSs in the latest technologies and practices of NextGen forecasting at both the sub-seasonal and seasonal scales.
3. 3. To introduce the features of the interface of the new version of NextGen (PyCPT 2.5).
4. 4. To enhance the participants' skills in generating seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts for key seasonal attributes using the NextGen approach.

Expected results

The expected outcomes of the workshop are as follows:

1. 1. Enhanced knowledge and skills resulting from the training sessions held in Ouagadougou and Lomé.
2. 2. Strengthened capabilities of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in the latest NextGen forecasting technologies and practices at sub-seasonal and seasonal scales.
3. 3. Introduction of the functionalities of the new version of NextGen (PyCPT 2.5) interface to the participants.
4. 4. Improved abilities of the participants in producing sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts for the main characteristics of the season using the NextGen approach.

Participants

Two (2) participants per country, namely one from the meteorological service and one from the hydrological service, are invited to participate in each workshop. Female participation is strongly encouraged.

Date and venue

Workshop One: 16-20 October will focus on the use of the NextGEN approach for seasonal and sub-seasonal climate forecasts

Workshop Two: 23-27 October will focus on the use of the NextGEN approach for hydrological seasonal forecasts.

For further information on the workshops, please contact Belmira Moustapha, AICCRA West Africa Communications Officer, at b.moustapha@cgiar.org