For indigenous pastoralist groups like the Ilchamus, Pokot and Tugen in Baringo County, Kenya, life is governed by when and whether the rains will come. Weather forecasting is therefore an essential part of their planning and decision-making processes. Located about five hours' drive northwest of Nairobi, these communities so far have relied upon indigenous practices to predict the weather. One of these consists of slaughtering a goat and examining its intestines and feed leftover. The pastoralists believe this helps to tell them when and where the rains will fall.

As weather becomes increasingly erratic, accurate and time-sensitive forecasting becomes even more important for planning crop and livestock activities. To address this, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has adopted Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP), a mechanism for collective sharing and interpretation of climate information for informed decision-making tailored to specific communities. PSP provides farmers and pastoralists with essential meteorological information to guide crop type and variety selection, and livestock management. The process ensures information is effectively disseminated from national to community levels.

In Kabarnet, Baringo County, a PSP meeting took place in March before the onset of seasonal rainfall. It brought together county officials, KMD scientists, agricultural and livestock officers, crop and livestock farmers from all 30 wards (the smallest electoral divisions of a county where citizens can access government services) and representatives of non-governmental organizations (NGOs). A key goal of the meeting was to present the KMD's downscaled county rainfall forecast for March-May 2024, and correlate it with indigenous forecasting analysis. The season's findings were quite similar to the indigenous forecast predictions. The participatory process of the meeting gave value and space for attendees to discuss the different methods of weather forecasting.

AICCRA’s contribution to effective downscaling of climate services

The Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project has supported PSP as an entry point to enhance the use of climate information services (CIS) and climate-smart agriculture (CSA) for local conditions. AICCRA-Kenya develops tailored CIS and digital agricultural advisory services that are inclusive of gender and society, especially in pastoral areas, to build and strengthen resilience.  

"AICCRA is scaling CGIAR climate research, including the findings of climate information-focused CGIAR initiatives such as Livestock and Climate, to support the scaling up of PSP in nine counties in Kenya. One of them being Baringo, a dryland area," said Aniruddha Ghosh, senior scientist at the Alliance of Biodiversity-CIAT, which organized AICCRA’s PSP workshops. 

Ensuring broad participation and understanding

Strengthening the resilience and adaptation capacities of Kenyan drylands requires inclusive engagement with active representatives from different and diverse stakeholders and ethnic groups. If discussions are conducted in local languages, this ensures no gaps in understanding. The Baringo PSP meeting was held mainly in Swahili and occasionally in Pokot to facilitate participation from everyone.

"I am here to learn more about scientific weather forecasting, as well as the blend betaween scientific weather forecasting and indigenous forecasting methods. I am so happy to see the blend because because scientific and indigenous knowledge can help us better tackle climate change," said Michael Kipsisin Chepkor, representative of the Indigenous Women and Girls Initiative and the Pokot community.

He strongly advocated for more women and youth representation in participatory meetings like these. 

The 60 attendees have already started to share weather forecasting information and agro-advisories with their networks, including through barazas (public meetings), farmer field days, church gatherings and digital platforms. This is empowering local communities with knowledge that can inform seasonal decision-making in households and communities. 

The Baringo County meeting shows how PSP creates and fosters new partnerships to enhance resilience. To meet some of the attendees of this PSP, watch the video here.

Acknowledgements

PSP Workshops were conducted with support from AICCRA, the CGIAR Initiative on Diversification in East and Southern Africa, the CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience and the CGIAR Livestock and Climate Initiative. We acknowledge key partners including the KMD, Alliance Biodiversity & CIAT, the county meteorology services and government of Baringo County and all participating organizations and farmers. Their collaboration and dedication played a pivotal role in the realization of these workshops and their impact on local climate action. 

Author

Kristen Tam, International Research Livestock Institute (ILRI)

With contributions from Mireille Ferrari and Renee Bullock